MBS Day Ahead: New Technical Level to Help Gauge Progress

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Most of my analysis in July and August focused on the positive technical boundary (aka “floor”) at 2.21-2.22. As of yesterday, that floor is increasingly confirmed to be broken. One of the most definitive confirmations of a technical break occurs when prices or yields move through a technical level from one side and then return to bounce there from the other side. This happened yesterday (in the overnight session) and the day before during the domestic session. A bounce on 2.22 suggested a showdown with 2.18 (or 2.182% depending upon your desired level of specificity). 2.18% was broken yesterday, but as we discussed, it took the exceptionally low volume and light liquidity of the summertime trading environment to grease the skids. Traders quickly brought yields back above 2.18 to…(read more)

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