MBS RECAP: All About Crummy Economic Data

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today was another nice, simple day for bond markets. Yields entered the domestic session slightly lower, thanks to weak data overseas. Even then, we were very much in the thick of the recent range. There was always a decent enough chance that a big beat/miss in Retail Sales data would move markets, but ended up getting just a bit more economic data weakness than a “big miss” normally implies. If we look solely at Retail Sales, it wasn’t abysmally low, coming in at 0.0 vs expectations for a 0.4 percent increase. But that’s certainly low enough to get bonds moving in the right direction. Then there was Producer Price data. Core PPI fell -0.3 percent month-over-month vs forecasts calling for a 0.2 percent gain. Year-over-year, the index stood at +0.7 vs a median forecast of …(read more)

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