MBS RECAP: Bond Rally More Coincidence Than Causality

Posted To: MBS Commentary

We’ve discussed the tenor of Thanksgiving week in bond markets being more to do with serendipity than traditional “cause and effect” relationships. That means the events and data on the calendar that typically push and pull on bonds throughout the course of the day are less relevant than normal. Instead, it’s the sometimes random, sometimes counter-intuitive tradeflows preceding a 4-day weekend that set the tone. And sometimes the seemingly random trades DO happen to line up in an intuitive way with the economic data and events. Today was one of those days. Both Durable Goods and Consumer Sentiment provided ways to justify bond buying. The only catch is that the bulk of bond buying didn’t happen in direct response to either data release. Still, we can at least say the…(read more)

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