MBS RECAP: Plenty of Volatility and Not Much Clarity Following NFP

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Let’s clear this up at the outset: when we talk about “volatility” these days, it’s not the same volatility that presided over some of the multi-point intraday swings in MBS seen during the taper tantrum and before. We’re not even back to early 2015-level volatility at the moment. But relative to the 45+ days of stability seen in the middle of this summer, the past month has been quite a bit more volatile. In terms of individual days, today didn’t bring any huge moves higher or lower, but there were several prominent lead changes , ultimately resulting in a rather anticlimactic “unchanged” day-over-day reading at the 3pm CME close (bonds keep trading until 5pm, but 3pm is the de facto “close”). The jobs report was slightly weaker than expected,…(read more)

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